In 1994, Ukraine signed the now-infamous Budapest Memorandum – a document which formalized Kyiv’s abandonment of nuclear weapons in exchange for Kremlin promises to respect Ukrainian national sovereignty. Included in these promises was not to use force against Ukraine and to respect Ukraine’s borders. There were two other parties to this agreement—namely, the US and the UK. Bill Clinton was the US President when the deal was signed. I was actually in Ukraine when Clinton visited Kyiv in 1995.
Another part of this deal that seems never to make the press is that the actual nuclear weapons were turned over to Russia. Clinton has made a recent comment that this was a mistake on his part in turning these over to Russia. Really?
A somewhat less well-known but equally important condition was that neither the Kremlin nor the White House wanted Ukraine to keep owning what at the time was the world’s third-biggest nuclear arsenal, which was that Ukraine should eliminate the delivery systems for its nuclear warheads: 1,080 air-launched cruise missiles.
Ukraine kept its word. Russia did not. The US and UK did not. Most military analysts have stated that if Ukraine still had these weapons, this war would have never started.
All this now brings us to the current situation involving the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The current situation involves the on-again, off-again dilemma of what action the current US Administration takes. On numerous occasions, it appears that the US is on the verge of taking decisive actions that will genuinely put pressure on Russia. If you recall, last week, President Trump met with President Zelensky to discuss purchasing Tomahawk missiles; however, the day before the meeting, Putin called Trump, and they decided to hold a meeting in Budapest. And just like that, all discussions regarding Tomahawks were dropped. The timing of Putin’s call was not an accident. Putin realizes that if Ukraine were to have Tomahawks at its disposal, Russian oil refineries would face devastation, which would exacerbate the ongoing fuel crisis and further create economic hardships that the Russians cannot withstand.
Putin has played the last 4 US presidents as pasties. Remember the old saying, if you are sitting around a poker table and can’t identify the pasty, then you are most likely it. For far too long, US policymakers have treated Putin as a rational leader. He is not, as he puts no value on human life. To this point, he has gotten away with war crimes, including violations of long-settled international norms as detailed in the Geneva Convention. His acts include intentional targeting of civilians as a way to destroy Ukraine’s will to defend its borders. Putin’s personal history matters as detailed by the following:
- In 2001, Bush said he looked into Putin’s eyes and got a sense of his soul.
- In 2012, Obama told Medvedev he would have more flexibility to negotiate with Putin after the election.
- In 2016, Trump said he had a good relationship with Putin and told Putin he could not have Ukraine. Trump indicated that Putin respects him.
- In 2022, Biden remarked that Russia would only face minor consequences for a “minor incursion’ into Ukraine.
- In 2024, Trump said he would end the war within 24 hours of retaking the Presidency.
Putin is a trained KGB agent who spent his formative years trying to destroy the West. His actions in Ukraine are those of a war criminal, and as such, he should be placed on trial in The Hague just as his good friend Slobodan Milosevic was tried. I have written in previous posts about Putin’s feelings on the Balkan wars. Putin was enraged when Serbia had to give up Kosovo. And because Russia was in a weakened state, he could do nothing to stop it. Putin vowed Russia would never be in this condition again.
Today’s reality is that Russia’s conventional military cannot win this war. Most of the Russian soldiers are conscripts, and they have no interest in fighting this war. They have seen firsthand what is happening to their fellow soldiers and want no part of it. The Ukrainians have recorded conversations of Russian soldiers calling home on their cell phones, describing the massacres they are facing. Russia is losing over one thousand soldiers daily. It has been documented that Russian soldiers are shooting themselves so they can be sent home. The only advantage Russia has is its ability to deploy a large number of drones and ballistic missiles.
Here are the most puzzling aspects of this entire war. The US and the EU have the economic power to break Russia’s economy, but they lack the political will to do so. The word ‘escalation’ is always thrown around for their inaction. The only escalation left for the Kremlin is to go nuclear. As an example, the EU has just announced its 19th sanctions package. If the first 18 have not worked, why would this one be any different? The two items that could break the Russian economy are removing their entire financial system from SWIFT and Fedwire, and imposing a price cap on Russian oil. This has yet to be fully enacted due to a lack of political will.
In closing, it was widely reported that President Trump was surprised to learn that Ukraine was far less dependent on the US than he had thought. This made it almost impossible to push Ukraine into a bad peace deal. Here is a startling statistic – ninety-nine percent of the recent strikes carried out by Ukraine on Russian territory were executed by Ukrainian-produced weapons. This information is provided by a Kyiv Post war correspondent who, by the way, is an American. These strikes have yielded far greater results than the economic sanctions imposed by the EU and the US. Ever since this war started, Ukraine has been fighting with one hand tied behind its back because of restrictions on how Western-supplied weapons can be used. It is worth noting that North Korea and Iran placed no limits on the weapons they provide to Russia.
The results achieved over the past several months have been shocking to many observers. Ukraine is gradually achieving strategic parity, putting greater economic pressure on Russia—exactly what is needed to bring Putin to the negotiating table. Putin only understands strength, and compromise is not in his vocabulary. Putin’s very survival depends on a degraded and subservient Ukraine. Unless he has something substantial to show for over 1.1 million casualties, his tenure as the leader of Russia is over. He understands this very well. The development and use of the Flamingo long-range missile have, for the first time, given Ukraine the opportunity to deploy its military forces as it sees fit. Ultimately, this is what will end this war, not useless meetings and halfhearted sanctions. The US and the EU will never have to send their soldiers to Ukraine if we only help the Ukrainian military with what they need to stop this war. It is in the world’s best interest to stop Russia now; however, this has not been effectively communicated.
Slava Ukraine, and God bless America! I sincerely hope he will continue to provide our leaders with the wisdom and courage to end this tragedy.
Prepared by Terry L. Stroud – October 2025
