What is the End Game?
Over the past several weeks, I have gone back and forth on whether to write another article on the war in Ukraine. It seems that the world has moved on from the atrocities being committed in this war. The focus in America seems to be more on what is going on in Gaza and Israel’s right to defend itself. As in Israel’s case, Ukraine did not start the current conflict and would prefer that the fighting stop, but Putin’s Russia is determined to continue even at the current rate of over 900,000 Russian Soldiers either being killed or their bodies are so mangled they will never return to a normal life.
Let me state this right up front. My support is not a stab at anyone’s political beliefs or the Biden or Trump Administration. Rather, it is a call to every American, whether they are a Republican, conservative, liberal, or any other group that cherishes our way of life and our freedoms. Many outsiders have been misled to believe that Ukraine is a freeloader that is taking advantage of America’s generosity. In reality, nothing could be further from the truth.
In my view, the American perspective of this conflict should not be focused strictly on Ukraine; rather, our objective should be to contain Putin and to make sure this type of aggression can never happen again. Ukraine’s only role in this conflict is based on the fact they share a border with Russia. This conflict could just as easily involve Poland, the Czech Republic, or any Eastern European countries once controlled by the former Soviet Union.
Most non-partisan think tanks indicate that the US has provided approximately $125 billion to support Ukraine, and the Europeans have provided roughly $100 billion. However, a distinction seems to be lost in the narrative surrounding the cost of this war. Let’s use the $125 billion mentioned to determine how this money was spent. Everyone acknowledges that $125 billion in cash was not sent to the Ukrainian government for use as they saw fit. Rather, 80% of this money never left our shores. It was given to our major defense contractors to replenish our weapons stockpiles; therefore, $100 million remained right here. One could say this was good for our economy, and it certainly would have been good if you were an investor in Lockheed Martin or General Dynamics.
Regarding financial assistance, I recently read an article from Reuters, which stated the Trump administration has reduced its estimate for the financial aid the US has provided Ukraine since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion from $300 billion to $100 billion. This reduced amount brings the assistance level to what most independent organizations think is a more accurate estimate.
According to George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures, the attack on Ukraine has been a failure. Putin clearly intended to take over Kyiv in a matter of days before the US or NATO could intervene. Rather than making Ukraine a Russian satellite, here is what Putin has experienced. There were a significant number of casualties, a coup attempt from a private mercenary group, a failing economy, and a future reckoning with the demographic problems that were present before the war. The war casualties have only made the Russian population problem worse.
Here is where things get interesting because what happens in Ukraine will impact the rest of Europe. I think this war (as things currently stand) impacts Europe much more than it does America. Therefore, it is logical to assume that the Europeans must put up most of Ukraine’s funding and other logistical support. However, Europe is not able to do that at this point. Most of the leaders in Europe now realize that they have relied far too much on the Americans for their protection. This was evident since it was recently announced by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, that collectively, Europe will allocate over 800 billion euros to rebuild its military capabilities. This is great if you are an American who had long pushed for Europe to fund their fair share for security, but it does very little if you currently live in Ukraine.
It is widely acknowledged that it will take Europe 2-3 years to ramp up its defense industries. Therefore, it would seem logical for the Europeans to confer with the Trump Administration and come to an arrangement where they would develop a program where Europe would purchase the weapons needed to help the Ukrainians fight the Russian aggression. It seems like a win-win. It is until politics and personalities enter the equation. The Trump Administration prides itself on making deals and should make this one. Eight hundred billion euros is more than walking around money. Sell Europe our weapons to help Ukraine fend off Russia. The only party that will not like this is Putin.
To further support this, it was published during a recent NATO conference held in Brussels that Secretary of State Rubio wants Europe to keep purchasing US arms. During this conference, Rubio reiterated the need for fellow NATO members to boost their defense spending while reaffirming the US’s continued support for NATO.
The international community has, for too long, held the illusion that a quick peace was possible. In reality, negotiating peace is not in Russia’s interest. From the very beginning, Putin has been hell-bent on subordinating all of Ukraine until it is proven to him that Russia cannot achieve this. How can Putin, at this point, back down? Putin has already declared the occupied territories as Russian. Like the rest of the civilized world, Ukraine considers these territories part of Ukraine.
I truly believe that Ukraine wants a lasting peace, but not at the expense of losing its sovereignty. No country will willingly agree to compromise on its territorial integrity. Therefore, demanding Ukraine to give up its internationally recognized borders for the sake of peace would be unfair and unrealistic. I lived and worked in Azerbaijan for four years, and there was constant friction with Armenia over occupation. This war did not end with a truce; it only ended when Azerbaijan had the military strength to take back the disputed territory. In other words, it ended with the capitulation of one of the parties, not with a temporary truce.
Lasting peace will come when the Trump Administration is convinced that Putin does not want peace. Only when it becomes undeniable that Putin is acting in bad faith and has no intention of seeking peace will the Trump Administration most likely change its approach, but we are not at that point yet. It would behoove the Trump Administration to begin to frame this war for what it is: An America First Issue. If Ukraine can continue to weaken Russia, then it will strengthen us and will force China to reconsider its options against Taiwan. This is even more true as Chinese soldiers are being captured in Ukraine.
In my view, the most revealing aspect of this war is that Russia has to rely on North Korea for additional weapons and fighters. Think about the fact that Russia has not been able to achieve any of its objectives at the start of the war, and they now have to rely on North Korea and China for soldiers. I recently read an article that stated in a conventional war, NATO would destroy every Russian soldier in Ukraine in a couple of months.
Here is what I want to reiterate about the various parties in this struggle. The US and the EU can bring the Russian economy to its knees if they have the political will. The combined GDP of the US and the EU exceeds 50 trillion USD, while the Russian economy is approximately 2 trillion USD. To put this in perspective, the GDP for the state of Texas is approximately 2.4 trillion USD. Russia does not have the financial ability to continue this war if the US and the EU utilize all the financial tools at their disposal; however, this takes political courage, which is in short supply. Why does no one publicly talk about the economic strength of the participants in this war? This will put added pressure on Russia to negotiate.
And one last comment, as I noted in my previous articles, is that approximately 350 billion USD of Russian money currently resides in Europe and America. Taking ownership of these assets will ensure no one except Russia will have to pay for this war. This is only righteous given the fact that Putin started this war, and he should be held accountable.
Several military planners and experts say, “If the US and the EU choose to give Ukraine what they need to win, Ukraine will likely win this war.” It is time for the political elite to listen to their military advisors and do what is right. It is also time to put the myth of the overwhelming strength of the Russian military to rest.
Prepared by Terry L. Stroud – April 2025
