My Ukraine Story – Part 9
As most of the civilized world knows, February 24th marked four years since Russia launched its brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, we have seen the nature of modern warfare rewritten, the map of European security redrawn, and the lives of the average Ukrainian profoundly transformed; however, all is not lost, as Putin has not achieved any of his grandiose objectives. He has not broken Ukrainians; he has not won this war. Ukraine has continued to persevere and, in certain ways, has become stronger.
It appears that most European allies have maintained their support, as evidenced by the fact that on the fourth anniversary, foreign convoys and dignitaries swarmed through the capital as delegations from around the world arrived to show solidarity. The UK and Australia unveiled record sanctions on Moscow while pledging increased aid to Ukraine. It was just announced that an EU aid package of $106 billion was forthcoming.
The EU has been unable to implement its latest sanctions package against Moscow due to objections from two member states. FYI – It is still amazing to see that the EU requires complete unanimity for these types of things to happen. I have often wondered and even advocated for the EU to implement the concept of a super-majority approval (75%). A unanimous vote is a receipt for a political quagmire. After all, it is difficult to reach a unanimous decision on anything in today’s political climate. Case in point: imagine how difficult it would be for all fifty states in the US to agree on anything, all the time.
In today’s fighting on the battlefield, success is difficult, if not impossible, to exploit. This is not the 3-day war that Putin was expecting.
As 2026 began, Putin put on his best maskirovka, which, by the way, comes naturally to him, given his KGB background. He sees no credible domestic threats to him since he killed the leader of the Wagner Group. Putin has no respect for Europe’s leaders in large part because he sees how the current American Administration treats them. He seems happy that Steve Witkoff is leading the peace negotiations. Apparently, Mr. Witkoff knows nothing of Soviet history, as it was attributed to him that, once the war was over, he suggested that Russia and Ukraine have a cultural exchange to understand each other better. Seems as if he forgot they were part of the Soviet Union for decades and share a border that is over 1,200 miles long.
And in my opinion, here is the most accurate description of Putin’s current thinking. He knows that there is no Nobel Peace Prize forthcoming if hostilities continue. He feels all he has to do is wait it out, even though he is losing over a thousand soldiers on the battlefield every day.
There is also one misconception that I feel compelled to address. The media narrative is that Russia is slowly advancing and gaining new territory daily. This is completely false. What is happening is a deliberate strategy by the Ukrainian military to make strategic pullbacks, then allow Russian soldiers to advance. Once they have advanced and the Ukrainians know their positions, the Russians will be destroyed. This is further evidence that Ukraine has transformed its military capabilities. International officials estimate that Ukrainian domestic defense production exceeds its imports. The Ukrainians are now opening export centers across Europe.
Ukraine’s soldiers are battle-tested, and NATO commanders now freely admit that they are learning from Ukraine’s tactics, particularly in drone warfare. It is also acknowledged that Ukraine now fields the most combat-experienced military in Europe.
So, where are things at the moment? We know that there are no victory parades in Moscow and no celebrations of liberation in Kyiv. The current status of the war can be described this way: a grinding contest of endurance and will. So, what will bring about change?
Just imagine if the US sold a limited number of Tomahawks or other similar missiles to Europe. Let’s start by selling 120 Tomahawks to the Ukrainians. This would allow 2 missiles a day for two months. This would create a panic in Moscow just as the HIMARS or ATACMS did when they were first delivered. The range of the Tomahawks is so great that Russia can’t defend all its oil refineries and other critical sites. Remember, the best sanction is the one that destroys Russia’s ability to finance this war. Without oil revenues, Russia has very little.
The entire question surrounding this war revolves around one fact. Is the West serious about helping Ukraine win or just helping it survive? The Europeans should be advocating for this since this war is happening in their backyard. And oh, by the way, is that not what NATO was designed for—to stop Russian aggression? Ukraine’s wartime plan therefore focuses on raising the cost of war for Russia across the military, technological, and economic domains.
Now, one last point, and that item always seems to center around the cost of this war. The Brookings Institution estimates that most US spending aimed at countering the Soviet Union, Russia’s predecessor, occurred after World War II, during the Cold War. Their study estimated $19 trillion in costs to deter Russia. A $200 billion bill to weaken Russia to the point that they can’t invade another country seems fairly cheap. And then, for further justice, take the Russian $300 billion in foreign reserves held in Europe and use that to repay all the damage they caused. Seems fair to me!
Prepared by Terry L. Stroud – February 2026
